We should be more Keanu
GDP is not the one.
So the UK economy shrank for the second month in a row in October. A third consecutive month and boom, we’d be in a recession.
This is unlikely to happen given the volume of spending that happens over November and December, but you never know.
Yet these monthly updates signal that there’s still an obsession with measuring economic growth and using this to tell us if a country is a good place to live. We know that experiencing economic growth doesn’t make us feel better, Our lives are about the simpler questions:
Do we have enough money to live comfortably and not worry too much about having enough to spend on things we want?
Do we feel rested and healthy?
Are we spending enough time with people we care about?
Are we contributing something of value to the world?
We don’t want growth. Growth means change, and humans don’t like change, certainly not rapid change. We like slow and steady. We definitely don’t want ‘rapid growth’ because that means we have to work more, spend more and generally increase the pace of our lives.
Keanu Reeves has the right idea when it comes to money (cc
). “Money doesn’t mean anything to me. I’ve made a lot of money, but I want to enjoy life and not stress myself building my bank account.” He focuses on his work, and what he contributes to the world — through giving money away, being a seemingly nice and normal person.If we could start measuring these qualities that Keanu embodies - contentment, contribution, balance - wouldn't that be more game-changing than GDP?
1. Building a trust-based portfolio
When you’re thinking about stock investments, you’re going to consider the obvious things:
Has the stock price generally tracked upwards over time?
Does it look like this company is going to keep growing?
The second question leads to lots of interesting opportunities for exploration. You might be looking at the political, economic, social and technological landscapes1 — how they are likely to shift, and what this means for the companies you’re reviewing.
Kyla has suggested another lens to consider; trust.
I think we’re all clear that we’re in batsh*t times and trust is precarious and decaying.
In this world, there are three categories of companies:
Systems Protection (companies providing defence and security in an uncertain world)
Physical security (defence companies), information security (IT security and infrastructure, like Crowdstrike) and asset security (like gold)
These will thrive when trust is low
Systems Maintenance (companies integral to keeping the world continuing with business as usual)
Financial (big banking companies and systems), risk management (like insurance companies) and core technology (like Microsoft and Apple)
These rely on trust being high
Systems Building (companies that are solving immediate problems while also building tools and systems that foster long-term societal stability):
These are harder to find: “Many try to build trust but can't survive long enough to succeed. Others claim to be builders but are really just exploiting the chaos.
“That's exactly why this matters!! If you can identify the real builders—companies creating verifiable value while laying groundwork for what comes next—you're not just investing. You're backing the infrastructure of tomorrow. (big bold claim, but important)”
What’s next?
Your portfolio will likely be a mix of all three (more likely the first two, with a sprinkling of the third). And it will depend on your views about where the world is going.
But, as Kyla outlines, there’s also “an opportunity to invest in what’s next at the root level. Here’s what you can do right now:
Pick your stance. Do you think we're headed for:
More fragmentation? Look at the System Protection portfolio
Stability? Consider the System Maintenance plays
A bridge to something new? Focus on the System Builders
Start small. Pick one company that fits your thesis.
Run it through the framework:
Revenue Source: Are they building something real?
Trust Impact: Does their success create stability?
Infrastructure: Are they building lasting systems?
Set a calendar reminder for six months from now. When it hits, ask: -
Has the company strengthened or weakened trust?
Are they still building what matters?
Has the trust landscape shifted?”
2. Rental costs up £3,240 a year on average since end of pandemic
There was also a protest in London yesterday, drawing attention to the capital’s ‘soaring’ rents. And landlords are implementing ‘no fault evictions’ before they become harder to do, ahead of strengthened renter rights coming next year (with the Renters Rights Bill).
What’s going on?
Renters are stuck paying higher prices
Covid led to an increase in people wanting homes with more space (and outdoor areas) but these were limited in supply, so prices went up
On the supply-side, it’s become harder for landlords to make money from rentals, due to increased regulations and requirements (including higher taxes)
But it’s believed that landlords are now waiting to see when interest rates are lower to buy more homes, which will increase supply in the rental market
New builds are also meant to be coming to the market, but this takes time and won’t be happening a for a couple of years at least
Rising mortgage costs mean that more people continue renting because they can’t afford to buy a house — because the mortgage repayments have become unaffordable
Plus, as rent becomes more expensive, you have less money to contribute to a deposit — you’re hit on both sides
Renters’ rights are not good
A landlord can evict a tenant for no reason; this is known as a ‘no-fault eviction’ (there are some exceptions to this rule)
Such evictions by bailiffs have gone up 23% in a year, seemingly as landlords want to get existing tenants out, so they can ‘reset’ ahead of the Renters Rights Bill coming in
They can also be priced out of properties through rental increases
The Bill has some good stuff, but nothing about rent control, which would make a massive difference to people’s lives; more and more people are being pushed towards homelessness
Related: This article about homelessness in America is so worth your time.
3. Some insights into being a female breadwinner in a m/f relationship
Research carried out in 2020 by the Office for National Statistics found that women out-earn their male partner in 23.3% of UK households. And, according to one study from 2019, 45% of female breadwinners also do the majority of household tasks, compared to 12% of male breadwinners.
This first-person piece looks at how some of these breadwinners have no issue spending money on their partner or children, but feel immense guilt spending anything on themselves.
Part of this seems to be linked to how they feel about looking after themselves (i.e. they don’t do this), and instead prioritise others around them. It’s a reminder that we all contain multitudes; just because someone is a breadwinner, it doesn’t mean that they have a uniform attitude to spending.
Links
Wearing ties and what they signal. This is also a great review of ties — from Yves Saint Laurent to Avril Lavigne.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government is giving its workers 4-day workweek to boost fertility and family time. And therefore quality of life.
Romania shocked the world last month when it voted for an outsider with ultranationalist views as president — but now it’s annulled the results. Călin Georgescu was polling poorly just weeks before the election. TikTok was crucial to his sudden success. It also appears to have been a key facilitator of foreign interference from Russia. Romania’s constitutional court has since opted to annul the results of the first election round. All eyes are once more on social media platforms and their ability to influence election outcomes. Until now, extraordinary discretion has been left to the companies curating our information ecosystem — Romania may turn the tide.
What December's cold moon 2024 means for your star sign. Look, it’s the full moon today. You might find this interesting, you might not!
Know someone who would enjoy this in their inbox on a Sunday morning?
The good old PEST analysis, friend to the SWOT analysis. This takes me back to uni days!
Loved reading the Full Moon article in the Links. Alarm set to catch the full moon tonight 🌚❤️